Peter Vardy’s Crystal Ball Spies the 2025 EV Market


Some authoritative and engaging analysis from Peter Vardy has been a major talking point in the retail motor sector, not least because it says that some European manufacturers might well outshine Mr Musk and his Teslas.

The starting point of the report is today’s EV market: there are over 290,000 pure-electric cars on UK roads right now.  New EV registrations are rising fast, while petrol is plateauing and diesel falling off a cliff.

Of course, any glance around our roads will prove that Tesla Motors has shot to the top of the best selling cars list, despite only launching in 2009.  The Vardy report says that new car registration figures for June 2021 sees the Tesla Model 3 take the top spot in Britain, beating more established models such as the Volkswagen Golf, Ford Fiesta and Vauxhall Corsa. 

The report then turns to which more traditional manufacturers have responded to the EV drive fastest.  It says that three of the biggest manufacturers, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, have all seen Tesla coming over the horizon and are predicted to end 2021 with 14 electric vehicles between them, to try and get bolster their EV market share ASAP.

Citroen, Honda, Hyundai, KIA, Nissan, Peugeot, Renault and Smart are all predicted to have three EVs within their model line up by the end of this year. 

But by 2025, how will things look?

Peter Vardy’s boffins have trawled the news and market reports to see who’s doing what.  Their conclusion?  Hyundai appears to be in the lead when it comes to creating a full range of cars fit for the EV transition. Other manufacturers close behind include Kia and Toyota.

As for Europe?  Well, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are the lead players now but the Vardy report sees Audi potentially pulling away from the pack with 20 EVs planned for production by 2025. 

And as for European manufacturers being able to fight off the Tesla challenge, there are signs it could be possible.  The Peter Vardy report says that in France, the Peugeot e-208 pinched the top spot from the Tesla Model 3 in EV registrations (Jan-Apr 21), taking a narrow 0.2% market share advantage over Elon Musk’s flagship vehicle. In Germany, VW’s e-UP (bound to be popular in Yorkshire…) and ID.3 models were the most popular and in Italy, their love for small, nimble motors saw the Fiat 500e and Smart ForTwo take the top spots over Tesla.